2022 USPS Household Diary and the Future of Transactional Mail: How Politics Could Impact the Decline of Printed and Mailed Bills and Statements
In the last 15 years, the volume of printed bills and statements delivered by the US Postal Service has declined by 50%, and this trend is accelerating. The question is not if, but when paper-based, printed, and mailed bills and statements will cease to be a meaningful and necessary form of communication delivery.
Several headwinds are facing printed and mailed transactional communications, including environmental concerns, postage costs, and supply chain issues. However, beyond these operational concerns, our current political climate poses perhaps the most potent challenge. It’s only a matter of political will that could expedite the decline or even eliminate mailed bills and statements altogether.
15 Years of US Postal Delivery Data
Since 2008, the US Postal Service has been releasing its annual household diary study, revealing the patterns and volumes of types of mail sent and received. The most recent report detailing 2022 volumes was unveiled in June 2023 and paints a vivid picture of a prolonged decline in transactional mail—specifically, bills and statements sent by banks, insurance companies, utilities, and financial service firms.
For 15 years, the combined bills and statements delivered by the US Postal Service have experienced a negative 4.6% compound annual growth rate (CAGR), and the decline is accelerating. On a rolling three-year basis, years 2020 through 2022 showed the fastest decline in over a decade at a negative 6.27% CAGR, compared to a negative 4.71% CAGR for 2017 through 2019, and a negative 3.68% CAGR for 2014 through 2016, respectively.
Figure 1: Combined Bills and Statement volumes from Section 4.1 of US Postal Service Household Diary Studies from 2008 through 2022
The Digital Tipping Point Has Already Occurred
Many of us have already made the transition to digital bills and statements. We access our bills online or via a mobile app, review balances, and make payments using the same methods. Speaking for my wife and me, we only receive the occasional EOB or healthcare bill in our mailbox. Otherwise, nearly everything we receive in our mailbox is direct mail or newspaper circulars, which, after a quick review, go directly into the recycling bin.
In the current environment, my prediction is that bill and statement volumes sent via mail will drop another 50% in half the amount of time. Therefore, by 2030, we may be looking at transactional mail volumes that are approximately 25% of what they were in 2008—a 75% decline in a little over two decades.
Political Willpower Could Be the End of Transactional Mail
While transactional mail volumes are already on a steady decline towards obscurity, politics could accelerate the demise of printed and mailed bills and statements, primarily due to a heightened focus on environmental sustainability concerns.
Governments worldwide have been adopting greener policies in response to mounting concerns about climate change. This shift extends beyond specific sectors and has begun to infiltrate various aspects of daily life, including farming practices, lighting, cooking, home cooling, and transportation. In this context, the decline of transactional mail could gain traction as a symbol of unnecessary paper waste and energy consumption.
A clear example of this trend can be seen in various Northern European countries, where mandates have been put in place to eliminate transactional print mail.
Potential Mandates and Regulatory Changes
With this global context in mind, it’s not far-fetched to consider the possibility of similar mandates taking root in the United States, either at the federal or state level.
The current electoral cycle underscores a commitment to addressing environmental challenges and catering to voter preferences. As administrations strive to demonstrate their dedication to sustainability, a logical step could involve reducing paper usage and the fuel consumption for household delivery, particularly in areas where digital alternatives are readily available and as younger generations become the dominant voting bloc. As a result, it’s not unreasonable to assume that policymakers or those vying for political office in a crowded field of candidates might soon turn their attention to transactional mail as a point of action.
Outright mandates, while initially met with resistance, could eventually reshape the landscape of printed and mailed communication, significantly hastening its decline. After all, the US Postal Service has already factored in the decline of First-Class Mail, smartly planning for a future where transactional mail is no longer a significant driver of postal revenues.
The shift to digital communication may well be accelerated by political will, resulting in a transformation that transcends individual preferences. Those most impacted will be the print service providers and vendors in the print and mail supply chain. While the near-time outlook may be positive for those that service the transactional print and mail space, the long-term view is unsustainable; the efficiency, immediacy and convenience of digital communication is undeniable. Engaging the digital conversation and understanding the role of printed communications in a digital-first world will be critically important to their success.
In the future, it will not just be the technological shifts, but also the profound impact that political decisions will have on the transition from paper to digital bills and statement delivery.
About the author:
Andy Young is an independent analyst covering the digital and printed customer communications industry. For more about print in a digital-first world, you can follow Andy on LinkedIn at [Andy M. Young on LinkedIn](https://www.linkedin.com/in/andymyoung/).
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For 15 years, the combined bills and statements delivered by the US Postal Service have declined by 50%, and could decline another 50% by 2030 driven by technology change and accelerated by political force.
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